Hi, wondering if anyone is in the same boat. We have a heat pump, solar & battery and are looking for the best Octopus tariff for us. Flux seems to be aimed at solar & battery owners (good for summer) , and cosy at heat pump owners (good for winter) - has anyone found a better one that is good all year round, alternatively, does anyone know how feasible it is to switch between the 2 tariffs every 6 months?
Thanks in advance!
My current plan is Flux from mid march to later September early October then back onto Intelligent. You can switch smart tariff every 30 days with Octopus if you wish. Quickest way is to phone them, switch is done that day.
A group of us have been discussing switching from flux in the summer to something else in the winter. All have solar/batteries, some have an EV too. But, is there a risk that Octopus put you back onto a SVT when going from flux to something else, or is it an instant switch, just that you can only change once per 30 days?
THALL thanks, that’s good to know!
Roberto thanks, can you point me to this group, please?
Roberto I have never been switched to variable tariff when switching within octopus. You can switch every 30 days between octopus tariffs. I switched between Agile, Go to Intelligent within a 6 month period last year without issue. Moving export tariff is slower than incoming. But I have always phoned and they switched me at midnight that day. All rather good :-)
My only concern is that flux might slash the export price soon. But at the moment it is building my winter credit rather nicely
THALL My only concern is that flux might slash the export price soon. But at the moment it is building my winter credit rather nicely
Yep it's not fixed, so I'm sort of thinking this year might wind up being the best one for Flux we'll ever see.
LordHippos Maybe. I am not sure prices will fall much below the £2k for average use though. 20% reduction in flux is still ok to me.
I too have ASHP since 2020 & solar panels & batteries since 2021. Not sure of our true usage as we had a hot tub for much of last year which will only be used in peak summer this year and also only got to grips with weather compensation for ASHP last Dec.
Likely imports 1Nov - 30Apr = circa 8,000kwh
1May - 31Oct we are likely self-sufficient overall (may import some elec if peak usage exceeds inverter)
Likely exports circa 2500kwh annually (solar production around 7000 kwh and 4500kwh self-used)
I have taken a different approach with Octopus:
Tracker for import (Daily Tracker rather than Agile as it gives us maximum flexibility to use at all times. If we had Agile we would need to time ASHP more to avoid peak times).
Tracker average prices
1Jan - 30Apr 22.75p inc vat
May has been under 20p and mostly near 18p (sun 21May was 17.06p)
Standard FIXED export = 15p
fixed one year
My strong expectation is that this fixed rate will drop in coming weeks (maybe very soon?) as it seems VERY generous vs Tracker import at 17 or 18p. Flux export rates are also likely to change?!
Tracker has a (circa) 6 month waiting list - so could get on list for next winter. No exit fees, no fixed term .....if things change can change immediately. While waiting to go on Tracker its probably best to go on Agile if taking this route.
THALL i agree the OFGEM cap may not drop a lot more than that - but its the wholesale price that needs looking at. As posted below the Tracker import price is 17.06p inc vat today but within that the Wholesale element is just 7.53p!!! remainder distribution, transmission, social/env etc etc
Standard fixed export went from 7.5p to 15p last Sept (the change was announced and effective immediately) and I would not be surprised if it was cut to under 10p again. Perhaps back to 7.5p even. Could see Flux export rates halve? Again any change is likely to happen with immediate effect
Tim Adams I think the next change is July, if the media is correct then I am expecting Flux prices / Tracker prices to fall just less than 20%. My prediction Day rate import 27p export 18p. Peak day 38p export 29p. Could be less... Would be great for many if it keeps dropping but I personal think prices will stay just under £2k pa for average user. Maybe 1.5k - 1.8k.
THALL Energy Price Guarantee is getting announced this week with effect as you say July. Expecting around £2k or so.
with Tracker import around 18p vs energy price guarantee around 27p (I agree the likely level) it remains VERY attractive.
Tracker will not fall further as a result of change to EPG - only reacts to wholesale prices.
Exports have pathetic minimum levels as we can see at many of the other energy companies. So export prices will almost certainly get reconfigured as it makes no sense for Octopus to offer 15p Fixed export vs current wholesale price of 7.5p within Import Tracker at 17p.
Just my view but I would think Octopus are VERY likely to change prices for import & export of Flux and other tariffs following the EPG announcement this week. As I say with a massive drop in Standard Fixed export too. I have grabbed it while available!
using my own example...
Tracker Import year average (say) 22p x 8000 = £1760
less Fixed Export 15p x 2500 = £375
Net £1385 (plus daily charge everyone pays)
EPG Import 2023 year average (say) 30p x 8000 = £2400
less Fixed Export 15p x 2500 = £375
Net £2025 (plus daily charge everyone pays)
With my inverter a Gen1 I can only fill batteries at 2.6kwh so its hard to get sufficient benefit of Cosy/Flux cheap rates... and I would ideally need peak rate imports to supplement in the coldest months (with an old house it's not realistic to switch off the ASHP for 3 hours when we are here).
Its very much a personal thing as it depends how/when you can timeshift usage etc. And how much you export vs import. In my case I perhaps export around 30% of my import total.
But even if I could maximise cheaper Flux/Cosy rates I doubt I could beat Tracker import with Fixed Export.
But my main point is to stress imho how likely it is that a sharp drop in export prices is coming!
Octopus Tracker import for tomorrow is just 16.93p inc VAT (Southern rates). Price set 11am daily
for info recent rates:
Sat 13/05/23 18.14p/kWh
Sun 14/05/23 17.89p/kWh
Mon 15/05/23 17.93p/kWh
Tue 16/05/23 18.11p/kWh
Wed 17/05/23 18.02p/kWh
Thu 18/05/23 17.78p/kWh
Fri 19/05/23 18.00p/kWh
Sat 20/05/23 17.14p/kWh
Sun 21/05/23 17.06p/kWh
Mon 22/05/23 17.06p/kWh
Averages:
Jan: 24.1p
Feb: 24.5p
Mar: 22.0p
Apr: 20.4p
May: 18.3p to date
1Jan - 23May: 22.05p