My COP of 2.5 is an estimate of what it might be on the coldest day. Of course, on warmer days I would be very disappointed to not get at least 4.0. If I get a SCOP of 3.50 to 4.0 in the first year I will be happy.
I intend to run the ASHP on pure weather compensation and I think we can run with a leaving water temperature of 40c at 2c outside/20c inside. Our house is very well insulated and the heat loss is quite low, even when our conservatory is taken into account. We have good size and fairly new radiators and only need to replace one old one.
We will export at least 6 mWh in a year, at 15p we will get £900 credited to our Octopus account. I expect to have to import around 3 mWh over three months (middle of November to middle of February), about 30 kWh a day. The size of the batteries means that I can pretty much say that I will import 1,800 kWh at the night rate and 1,200 at the day rate which will work out at a cost of £930 including the standing charge, so close to my goal of £0.
We also took part in Octopus savings sessions this year and if they run them again that will add to our income , charge the batteries and heat the house.
It will be better if I could charge at a higher rate and make it easier to manage, it's only really use of the oven while the heat pump is running that is likely to cause an issue with what we can draw from the batteries.
For that reason, it is not worth risking big problems if two chargers isn't guaranteed to work.
Lots of headroom in the batteries does mean that I won't be fully charging overnight and then exporting in the morning as it is warmer and/or sunnier than I was expecting only to be importing at peak rate later on.
It's not perfect, and probably not the most financially efficient way of doing this, but it does enable me with some certainty to have fixed our energy costs, maybe too high, but then who knows how things will be in the future.
It was also a bit of a project/challenge just to see if I could make it work, we will feel good if we can be a net exporter of energy with zero costs (ignoring the capital outlay).
Ultimately it isn't always about the cost, I wanted to do this, and the large amount of generation and battery storage means that most of the time we can turn on anything we like knowing it's `free'.