As of today, since 1st. March, my home consumption of Kwhs is now exactly equal to my solar generation, and my grid import is within a few Kwhs of my solar exports.
As I'm on Cosy and the weather is getting warmer, it seems about time to swap over. Just interested in people's thoughts!
TimHutchings it all depends if you need that second cheap rate that Cosy offers, but then for me Agile Import has been a lot cheaper than Flux for me so far, and at 15p export the difference between the is quite minimal. I don't export much between 4pm and 7pm, but when I start doing more then I'll move, probably around April time
Cdent The export rate on Flux is 2-3p higher than the std 15p export rate, and the A2A heat pump is using less and less now its got milder.
Of course the Flux rates will change in April and will no doubt reflect the quite substantial drop in lecky costs. Anyone heard what the rates will be?
TimHutchings we also run A2A and considering the same as we're already exporting. However I think we'll hold until April to see what the new pricing brings. We made a substantial amount from Flux last year so likely we'll change if the rates still look sensible. A2A has also been excellent for us.
The daytime export rate differential between Flux and Outgoing is small.
And the enhanced 4-7pm Flux export rate is much lower than last summer. I did extremely well on Flux last summer but energy prices were then high.
I worry that the standard 15p export rate will be reduced in April along with Flux export rates.
Over winter, my best tariff (and I have tried them all!) was Agile import with 15p outgoing.
I also run Predbat on HA which is marvellous for optimising Agile imports. I finished up more than halving my bill from Cosy (I have an ASHP). Have a look on Octopus Compare.
My decision for this summer will be whether to change to Flux or stay with Agile + Outgoing.
But I am waiting until I get notification from Octopus on April rates in the next week or so.
Rob
TimHutchings ah, the different in daytime export for me is 1p so not currently worth it, when I export more at peak I'll consider it, but as you say depends what April's prices bring
Rbor The peak rate export is still showing 28p for us and as we have a good array and quite a lot of storage, it could still be quite lucrative (new rate depending). We have an EV but charge it infrequently so the night Flux import rate for that would still work. As usual, it's a case of what kit you've got and how you use it. Nice to have options though!
Rbor I agree that I probably would have been better off through the winter with Agile, but that really requires very active monitoring, or a semi degree in programming to automate the process, and I'm not sure I want to tax my brain quite so heavily these days! 🤪
The Flux rates in April are inevitably going to be reduced, probably quite substantially, but proportionally will still be aligned to the import costs, so percentage wise would still be worthwhile. Unfortunately, it just means that payback on our investments in solar will increase.
My general goal was always to remove the cost and worry of all fuel bills on a fixed pension income, by being energy neutral at year end, whatever general rising prices occur over future years. To that end I've succeeded.
TimHutchings but that really requires very active monitoring, or a semi degree in programming to automate the process
Honestly, using WonderWatt it is fire and forget for me. No degree, no intelligence!
Watcher 😂 When I was younger, you actually had to be very bright to get into university - it wasn't a lifestyle choice! Oh, how times have changed!
Anyhow, thanks for the heads-up. I might take a look next winter or if the new Flux rates are diabolical and Agile looks more likely to be profitable with with fixed Outgoing. We'll see how things pan out.
TimHutchings a semi degree in programming to automate the process
I've spent over 40 years programming and Home Assistant is the only thing that came close to beating me!
But back to your question - I've been on Flux throughout the winter and this month is the only one, from October to March, where I wouldn't have been better off on Agile and fixed outgoing.
I moved from Flux to Agile in October to cover the high demand the ASHP was starting to draw. Every month I was definitely better off (by about £150) to be on Agile than Flux.
Yesterday we made a 20p profit from electricity (import minus export) so the tide is starting to turn but I think I won’t be changing until April. As others have said, wait and see what the new Flux rates are
Prices are changing for flux soon too.
I worked out I earn circa 3p per kWh bought at cheap and sold at peak. Although I much prefer free solar into the battery followed by peak export!
Probably should point out I'm on intelligent flux, not regular flux.
Same as you; took early retirement nearly 2 years ago, so having solar installed last year was part of the plan to reduce outgoings to maximise our discretionary spending. I think we could be close to being cost neutral once we get a full year with export, especially with the saving sessions forced exporting too (nearly £100 this winter from that alone).
It took us so long to get onto export/Flux last year that I just stayed on it through winter. Due to oversizing only December and January were negative; February we exported more than we imported by about 50% though we were away and only our son at home, so in future years it's going to be more like neutral I think (obviously would need exactly the same weather).
Other than changing the % to charge our battery during cheap rate and forced export during saving sessions I've left ours alone. By mid April I'll stop bothering to force charge overnight as we didn't need it from install last May right through to late September.
I never did a degree, so I don't want to try to get my head around complex programming or various Apps. Seems to be working OK, perhaps not getting every last drop out of the system, but I don't want to spend my time fiddling about with settings. It's still way better than it was before we had solar anyway.
If you are going to switch do it before the end of the month as come april prices readjust.
Jellybaby Not sure that Flux has fixed rates! They will automatically adjust downwards when the rates change.
TimHutchings Not sure that Flux has fixed rates! They will automatically adjust downwards when the rates change.
that’s what happened last October to me, they just adjusted downwards at the new rates.
But Octopus have been changing certainly Agile and Tracker to be fixed rates because they were getting into difficulties with the regulator by them being variable rates and charging more than the price cap at certain periods.
Looking on the Octopus website it does say that Flux is a variable tariff https://octopus.energy/smart/flux/ that can rise and fall with market prices
Flux is more attractive when BST hits as you get a lot more daylight to export at the flux rate. We’ll see what the prices do but think I may well stay on agile all year this year!
TimHutchings They all do now
Rbor Yeah, this all feels very familiar. Agile + Outgoing + Predbat (or MyEO or WonderWatt) have been great, even with our beast of a heat pump. Just over 50% savings compared to standard tariff. Will reassess in a month or two, but sticking with that for now.
Jellybaby From the Octopus Website.
Yes, it is a flexible tariff. This means the unit rate and standing charges can rise and fall with wholesale energy prices.
When the rates of our flexible tariff changes, the price of Flux will also change. We'll always give reasonable notice of any changes to your prices, and there's no exit fees or tie-ins; you're free to switch tariffs or change suppliers at any time.
There's no exit fees or tie-ins, so if Octopus Flux doesn't work for you, you're free to switch tariffs or change suppliers with no penalties at any time.^
Effectively it won't make any difference whether you change now or after April. The price will be Octopus deem it to be.
And this is from Agile T&C.
2.3.2.1 For customers who signed up or renewed before 11 December 2023: Agile Octopus is a Variable Rate Tariff, and your daily standing charge and the unit rate pricing formula is variable and subject to change. We will give you reasonable notice of any changes.
2.3.2.2 For customers who signed up or renewed after 11 December 2023: Agile Octopus is a Variable Rate Tariff with a fixed term. This means whilst your unit rate varies daily throughout the day, your daily standing charge and the unit rate pricing formula are fixed for the duration of your tariff term.
All should become clear as we receive our new tariff notifications from Octopus in the coming days.
Rob
I'm on Agile at the moment, but need to give serious thought to whether to change soon. Especially as we're lucky enough to be going away (sailing) from the beginning of May to September, leaving an empty house - so the system is going to be energy-positive a lot of the time.
Currently PredBat on HA is doing quite a good job. So good choice of tariffs and PredBat tuning could be very beneficial!
Agile import and fixed export could be the way to go. Octopus possible combinations are here: https://octopus.energy/help-and-faqs/articles/which-export-tariff-can-i-combine-with-my-import-tariff/
Just about to go to bed and up pops an email from Octopus with the new rates for Cosy in my area.
Your new prices
Electricity
Current prices
until 31st March 2024
New prices
from 1st April 2024
Current Standing charge (per day) 42.011p - new 47.849p
Current Unit rate - peak (per kWh) 46.744p - new 36.619p
Current Unit rate - cosy (per kWh) 17.529p - new 12.370p
Current Unit rate - day (per kWh) 29.215p - new 25.255p
If anyone has the new Flux rates, perhaps they could post them. Many thanks.
Here's the gas prices for my area - Essex
Your new prices
Gas
Current prices
until 31st March
2024
Your prices
from 1st April 2024
Current Standing charge (per day) 27.468p - New 28.949p
Current Unit rate (per kWh) 7.309p - New 5.963p
Flux in Manchester
Electricity (Export)
Unit rate - peak (per kWh) old 28.816p new 24.991p
Unit rate - flux (per kWh) old 6.064p new 5.259p
Unit rate - day (per kWh) old 17.440p new 14.851p
Electricity (Import)
Standing charge (per day) old 49.770p new 49.119p
Unit rate - peak (per kWh) old 39.816p new 34.530p
Unit rate - flux (per kWh) old 17.064p new 14.799p
Unit rate - day (per kWh) old 28.440p new 24.665p
So the standing charge has actually gone down by a fraction of a penny.
nophead very interesting.
No emails yet about whether Agile is changing. My export says its fixed at 15p to 25th October 2024 so at least there’d be no change to that.
Comparing Agile to Flux:
So it comes down to how much you can export in the peak vs what you need to import.
A very rough calculation from my own Octopus bills last year:
So converting to monthly figures:
So Flux about £11 a month better off than Agile.
I need to look at when I started using my own automation scripts and then Predbat to get a better comparison of profitability as at least for the first part of that period I wasn’t doing anything to maximise my export income, but it would suggest that Flux is going to be worth moving back to although not massively so.
Also of course Agile rates in summer could well be lower than my winter rate comparison.
One additional thought, with those rates there is no benefit pre-charging the battery overnight to start grid export sooner. Some people have followed that strategy with Flux, but you’d definitely be loosing money with a hybrid inverter, better to let the battery charge with solar DC than incur the grid import AC conversion.
James L maybe move to intelligent flux?
Fully automated for you.
Export at circa 21p per kWh off peak and circa 28p per kWh 4-7pm. (April prices for Midlands).
Import prices are the same, but sounds like you won't be importing much.
TX200 Thanks for the input - yes, I was wondering if Intelligent Flux sounds like the best option, and I think you're right.
As long as we can switch back on our return!
geoffreycoan Thanks for doing a few calculations using the Flux/Agile tariffs. My sense was that Octopus would probably make it worthwhile to use Flux in the summer to stop it becoming obsolete. You never know what geopolitical events may happen when extra power in the grid could be needed.
As things stand, Cornwall Insight are predicting another drop in July, followed by a slight rise in October, so it looks like energy costs are likely to remain low all year. However, when Trump wins in November and maybe pulls US funding from Ukraine, Russia sees an opportunity to expand operations there, and energy prices could creep or even shoot up again.
Everything is interrelated, and it's good to know that for those of us with solar, we have some independence from the vagaries of the fickle world in which we live.
James L flux is variable, so switching off it is fine.
As for getting back onto your current tariff, was it agile/tracker? Might be a 9 month wait between leaving and rejoining it?
Might just about work? Could go back to SVR if intelligent flux wasn't right for your return to the house or maybe go to another tariff as long as there isn't an exit fee, before returning to agile/tracker 9 months after leaving it?
TimHutchings However, when Trump wins in November
Is that better or worse than the effect of Biden banning gas exports?
At the end of the day a country needs to look after it's own energy security, which hasn't really been done in Europe - except perhaps Norway.
SJB I am just looking forward to the memes again if Trump wins, he was a meme god, Biden is kind of a one trick pony for memes.
Jellybaby Well if you can't respect them at least you can laugh at them. I'm still trying to work out if politicians were always this bad and whether they're just there to keep the news media and comedians busy.
I'm gutted that intelligent flux rates dropped but its still probably the best tariff out there if you export more over the summer than you use.
It turns the grid into your battery so on days when the washer is nonstop etc its just taking like for like
hamilton Depends on how much you export during 4-7, I got a 3.8kw array but after 4 it starts dropping and at 5pm im only exporting a couple hundred watts as im not getting no direct sunlight.
Same here but when the clocks change we will be exporting plenty after 4.