One observation (from elsewhere) - the Octopus Outgoing is fixed (for me, until January) whereas Flux presumably drops in April and is expected to do so again in June.
https://octopus.energy/octopus-smart-tariffs/flux-rates-april-2024/
So where I am, daytime export price more or less matches the 15p Outgoing Fixed price from April (next week). Need to do some sums to see how much the extra 10p for peak-rate export pays off...
Looking at Tim's spreadsheet, modelling is quite simple. Doesn't consider importing overnight to export during the day, and a fixed 0.5 fraction of export during peak rate doesn't obviously take into account battery capacity / inverter capacity. Eg his July averages 25kWh per day, but some days will be higher (maybe 40kWh ?). Can't reasonably expect to export 20kWh in the 3-hour peak period. But then in the shoulder months, you might be able to export more than half during the peak rate.
At best, you could export entire battery capacity during peak, but if you don't hold some back, you'll have to re-import overnight. For Flux, that doesn't really matter, since daytime import rate roughly matches peak export rate, so you're just cancelling any excess exporting you did. Works even better on Intelligent Flux, but the evidence is that Octopus don't really drain that much of the battery during peak rate. But for IOG, running out of battery in the evening is a bit more expensive.
Presumably those running predbat can actually emulate the behaviour on different tariffs, to see what would actually happen.