Josephiah thanks, that was the article I was referring to
Although I’m not using it in anger I think this is a much more preferable way to predict heat pump consumption as its based on your own actual data. Even without your routine I can see a clear correlation between daily average outside air temperature and heat pump consumption

Daily average temperature is a bit of a crude measure, maybe model in 3 slots such as daytime, evening to heat pump off, and then heat pump overnight to on would give an even more accurate figure. But in the grand scheme of things the extra hassle and template sensors wouldn’t necessarily give much more meaningful answers because for me the heat pump consumption in winter exceeds my battery capacity so it becomes a moot calculation anyway.
Looking at your strategy above Roy124 a couple of observations on optimising things:
Roy124 ASHP: 2300-0400 we have the heat setting to 20°C. From 0400-2400 we now leave it at 23°C. Individual room stats are generally 20°C upstairs falling back to 18°C 1000-2000. Downstairs most stats are at 22°C with one at 23°C.
Hot Water: 0530-1000 its is set to ECO 46°C. Still playing with this but this is sufficient to give a reasonably hot shower at 2120-2200.
In general for best heat pump efficiency you want the master thermostat set to a level where it doesn’t ever turn the heating off and you control the temperature by flow rate and water temperature through the radiators being sufficient to match heat loss.
So 23 degrees for the master thermostat is fine if this is above your target temperature so it basically acts as a heating on/off switc.
But for the radiators you should open the thermostatic valve to maximum and turn the opposite side lockshield valve down to reduce the radiator flow rate to your desired temperature. That way the radiator is only getting the water it requires to meet your room temperature and the TRV’s are not artificially reducing the flow rate around your system.
You do need to have weather compensation turned on for this to work so the water temperature is as low as it can be to replace lost heat. The higher the flow temperature the more kWh your heat pump will consume so lower and slower the better. My heat pump was designed and commissioned with a 55kWh flow temperature, the house was lovely and warm but boy did it eat electricity. We have it turned down a lot more now and I’ve reduced running costs considerably (my year 3 anniversary of the heat pump was last week):
2022-23 5,311kWh £1,426
2023-24 5,936kWh £1,500
2024-25 4,330kWh £657
On the hot water, depends on your daily consumption, but I would suggest heating it only from 0400-0700 because your current timing has the hot water heating during the day-rate so if you have a shower or bath in the morning the hot water will have to heat back up again.
If a single hot water run is not enough to take you through a day then do a second burst in the afternoon Cosy period.
I heat my hot water just once a day to 48 degrees at around 3:30am. A day-time heat would give the advantage of slightly warmer air temperature but I choose to do it overnight to try to catch the cheapest Agile rates (ha!)