Jellybaby
Thanks for the thoughts on tracking the "real" SoC, I will bear these in mind. Given that I am on the Cosy Octopus tariff with its 3 cheap periods, I only get down to <40% SoC when I want to.
I try to minimise exporting, so for the last week or two I have been deliberately skipping some charging opportunities to minimise solar exporting. I have also now tuned predbat to try to minimise exporting and this seems to be working OK, but I occasionally deliberately still want to exhaust the battery and it was on such an occasion that I expereinced thsi worrying drop in SoC.
The following day, after at 100% charge, I deliberately exhausted the battery again. This time, I did not see a huge drop in SoC but a small "knuckle" that I has previously seen during recalibration.
I will keep monitoring via HA and let predbat do its thing, along with an occasional full discharge. I will update if I discover anything new, but so far, this seems to be a one-off.
One final thought is that I had enabled low-power charging in predbat and am wondering whether this could be a contributor. I am not sure how, but it was the only thing that had changed recently in my setup