Octopus export - standard fixed tariff - time to fix before its cut?

Octopus export - standard fixed tariff is 15p with a one year fix - which seems very attractive compared to wholesale import prices

latest import Tracker price updates for Electricity tariff - Tracker Nov 2022 V1 (Southern England) :
Today : 17.89p/kWh

Surely likely to see a drop in the fixed export price? Certainly no chance of it going up currently! The fixed export was increased from 7.5p to 15p last Sept when import rates were far, far higher and Agile Export also higher.

So may be worth considering locking it in now - its a one year fixed rate.

it should be noted that Octopus Agile Outgoing average prices in Sept last year was around 30p (with quite a big range of prices) when the Fixed rate was set at 15p.

Octopus Agile Outgoing average prices since start of 2023 started around 15p and have steadily fallen - current average is under 10p.

The chances must be high that the Fixed rate (currently 15p, fixed 1 year) will be cut in the not so distant future. I would suggest we could see that drop to somewhere between the previous 7.5p and 10p? Perhaps also impacting Flux export rates too?

Obviously no certainty over future prices but would simply suggest its important to regularly review the tariff(s) you're on for both import and export. Situation will vary according to elec imports, export, ability to timeshift and how much you want to keep checking and managing imports & exports.

In my case I sometimes produce around 6 or 7kwh on a sunny day. But the inverter can only take 2.6kwh into the batteries and baseload is perhaps 400w in summer. So around 3 or 4kwh is forced to be exported at time its produced. Typically when Agile rates are low - so Fixed 15p is more attractive than taking low rates and trying to capture higher rates with battery exports at peak times.

For me its simplicity that I want. So Tracker (daily rates) for import and Standard Fixed (15p) for exports

I changed back to fixed from Agile in March when I realised. It's a no brainer.

I’m on fixed. Perfect for me as it’s normally exporting when I don’t need it and my battery is full. Flux seems like a faff and I don’t want to be exporting during peak worrying about making it through the night.

Being on the tracker, I also haven’t had to worry about using the grid too much as it’s been around 18p for a while.

I’m going to go back to fixed. I don’t export much as a rule - though did export 10kWh over the weekend.

Just got to remember how to do it!

anglefire pretty easy switching with Octopus as they'll do it via website, app, phone, email... and even social media

Hook I was on Agile export and considered switching to the fixed, but then flux came along. It is only a faff if you want it to be. If you want to play the "maximise profits" game and force discharge during peak hours and hope you have enough to limp through to your cheap charge rate or solar the next day then you can. Or you can just put the inverter into ECO mode and let it run. It will give you about 23p for any solar you export during the regular day price, but as days get longer and sunnier you often end up generating excess in the peak time and that gets exported at the premium price. Sure, you don't make the huge profits that some on here talk about, but I covered the cost of any other electricity and gas I used last month, plus the standing charges. I didn't need to fiddle with the system set up at! It probably isn't worth it if you have ultra cheap import and an EV (like on go), but you are going to fill your battery really quickly in the summer and be exporting into the evening, so why not?

Currently on flux, no issues. I don't export from my battery only my excess solar. Last month was just under £100 credit so can't complain.

On Octopus fixed export tariff and on Economy 7 for import. Use almost no peak rate import as either on solar or stored battery power during the day. Any we export in the day at 15p/kw is almost balanced by any night rate import at 16.4p/kw. No need to change any settings apart from battery charge level which I set in the winter at 50% and in the summer at 30%. I have 2 x 9.5 gen 2 batteries and a hybrid 5.0 gen 1 inverter. Installed since Jan 2023. Economy 7 gives 7hrs night rate electricity which we use in the winter for some night storage heaters in our own house and adjoining rental flat which is entirely heated by night storage heaters. The ability to load shift onto night rate with the batteries saves a fortune esp in the winter and we now never use more than 1kw of peak rate electricity per day either in the summer or winter.

just to say... main point of this thread is to point out potential (likely based on current wholesale rates) for cuts in export rates that will probably impact Standard Fixed in particular but as its a 1 year fix its worth considering getting on to it now. A fix now to capture 15p for this summer at least.

If/when export rates are cut its likely that Flux export rates will also be cut but is likely to be offset with cuts in import rates too.
no idea.... but Flux might see revision to (say) with current prices in brackets
Flux Import 24.23 (34.23)
37.92 (47.92)
12.54 (20.54)
Flux Export 14.39 (24.39)
28.76 (38.76)
4.01 (10.01)

so one would need to do own calcs to see potential impact vs (say)
Tracker Import 20p
Fixed Export 15p

On the wider question of which tariff or mix of tariffs is best then it depends enormously on personal factors including:

• Imports - and when according to seasons, days, times etc
• exports - and when according to seasons, days, times etc
• PV - if any, capacity etc
• inverter - if any, capacity etc
• batteries - if any, capacity etc
• timeshifting imports/exports
• EV in mix?
• EPS in mix?
  etc etc

definitely no one tariff suits all!

Tim Adams No one tariff suits all is definitely true, but the fact that no one tariff works year round for me is a bit of a ball ache...

Flux is great for me in the summer (on the current rates) but who know what I'll be on for the winter.

Hoping they sort out a Givenergy intelligent tariff soon