billG I put together a simple Google sheets spreadsheet to calculate whether it was worth me getting a third battery, if you want to use it for your own calculation, the link is https://docs.google.com/file/d/10NLAyNAWC6Aun8oTCCyG9fjfXoRTh9qf/edit?usp=docslist_api&filetype=msexcel
My conclusion was that the payback time was at least 6-7 years, and that best case was based on charging it every night in the winter to take advantage of the peak/offpeak saving, and during the summer it being charged by solar and us using the saved solar overnight.
If I just looked at winter overnight charging savings the payback was something like 22 years!
When we get our flux export tarrif I’ll probably have another hack at the calcs to see if that makes it any better, but at the moment my conclusion was that its just not worth it. The 9kW battery seems to have dropped from about £4000 to £3500 but electricity prices have dropped as well so I concluded it still wasn’t worth it.
On your other question about getting an ASHP. We’ve had one for 15 months or so after our oil tank started leaking. The current regulations for oil tank siting meant we’d have had to move our tank to the middle of the garden as it has to be 1.5m from buildings and 760cm from property boundaries. The previous location next to sheds and the garden fence wasn’t acceptable.
We were just in time to get the RHI grant which required that the house energy rating be no worse than D.
For our house which is fairly well insulated band D, rough figures for running the ASHP are 4kW a day from April to October and 27kW a day from November through to March. So circa £1 a day in summer, about £10 a day in winter, but in extremely cold weather (e.g. mid December last year) it can be £15-25 a day.
It sounds like your property isn’t going to be as well insulated as mine and as a consequence you could well find the heat pump struggles to keep the house warm, runs all the time and costs a fortune to run. You really do need a well insulated house to be able to use a heat pump effectively.